i think to get "balance" only certain things need to be done. in vanilla, it was pretty commonly accepted that we were soooo close to balance before the xpac. it was felt that one patch might have sealed the deal. greeks just needed a boost, set needed to be toned down, and a few odds and ends needed taking care of.
of course, now with the xpac and the set overnerf there are new things to consider.
i don't think it's too far off, but there are some glaring issues that show that the game is not "balanced" right now.
i think "balance" means that there is only about a 25 pt (1 win) differential between civs. what i mean by that is that in order to beat an overpowered civ with your underpowered civ you only have to be about 25 pts better than your opponent (in "real" skill rate). right now, this differential is 50+ pts and that is too much. when i have people who are obviously 50 pts less skilled than me beating me with oranos that's frustrating. if, however, they're only 15 pts less skilled than me, i'll take my loss and play again because i feel that's close enough to equal for my tastes.
fh